Sunday, September 01, 2013

Opinion: The Tablet Bubble is Going to Bust Soon

We are told we live in a "Post-PC" world, and the tablet and the smartphone is going to replace the laptop and desktop computer.  Personally I don't see either the laptop or desktop computer being replaced anytime soon.  Just as I don't see "cloud computing" replacing the need for companies to own servers in the near future.

The technology pundits who look at things as black or white, will almost always be wrong.  In the eighties, they told us that mainframes were dead with the invention of the PC.  Mainframes are still being used today. Every technology has its place, and like all market trends today's popular technology will eventually find its niche.

Although like all popular technologies, it has its time in the spotlight, but soon it will fade.  Before the tablet, the rage was netbook computers.  Then as soon as Steve Jobs announced the iPad that market seemed to die quickly.

For me tablets are too limiting (i.e. the inability to run Windows applications) to even come close to replacing my laptop.  I found most modern mobile apps and devices too under-powered in the features I need.  They also required making too many compromises to use them for everything I wanted to do.  The Microsoft's Surface Pro is the first tablet I would consider buying because of its ability to run native Windows applications.

The problem with the tablet market right now is that there are so many different tablets being offered by a plethora of manufactures, and they all look like they do the same thing. Products are now being distinguished by price and not innovation.  It looks like the market may soon hit a "glut", where small manufactures will fail, unprofitable product lines will be discontinued, and people looking for a great deal will feed on the remains.

Personally I believe we might see a great deal more tablet/laptop hybrids (i.e. laptops that convert into tablets) from PC manufacture and eventually Apple.
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